Financial model

Five-year projections

A 60-month engine reporting annually. Base currency MVR. USD costs are converted at a blended effective rate, never at the peg. The balance sheet reconciles in all 60 months.

MVRYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue (net of GST)4,298,9879,753,18916,080,97618,889,86921,889,886
Cost of goods sold(2,191,049)(5,541,139)(9,364,924)(11,240,314)(13,265,066)
Gross profit2,107,9394,165,9916,621,1397,518,1758,452,668
Gross margin49.0%42.7%41.2%39.8%38.6%
Operating expenses(2,201,794)(3,093,510)(3,989,802)(4,078,891)(4,138,564)
EBITDA(93,856)1,072,4812,631,3373,439,2844,314,104
EBITDA margin-2.2%11.0%16.4%18.2%19.7%
Net profit after tax(526,018)600,1361,956,4292,711,9063,524,226
Closing cash6,202,6134,386,6016,122,1767,896,88310,426,804
A correction that changed the answer

This model originally ran on an average item price of MVR 335 — the median of 155 hand-collected observations, which included Instagram resellers pricing at MVR 150. A scrape of two formal Maldivian K-beauty storefronts returned 911 live SKUs with a median of MVR 401 (Mizuki 401, Laneve 350). For a formal shop that is the right benchmark, and MVR 390 is used as a conservative midpoint.

The effect is not marginal. At MVR 335 the project returned a 4.7% IRR and a negative NPV. At the real market price it returns 24.8% with cumulative five-year free cash flow of +MVR 5.4 million. The business was never as thin as the model said — it was mispriced in the model.

Funding

TrancheMVRUSDRelease condition
Tranche 1 — at close5,500,000356,680Seven gates satisfied
Tranche 2 — milestone2,900,000188,067Two signed brand mandates; flagship at 18+ transactions a day for two quarters; wholesale at MVR 250,000 a month
Total — 65% equity / 35% debt at 11%8,400,000544,747
Whose equity?

Retail and wholesale trade are closed to foreign ownership under the Foreign Investment Entry Requirements effective 8 October 2025. Only three structures are lawful: Maldivian nationals or Maldivian-owned entities hold the shares and foreign parties may lend but not own; foreign capital enters purely as debt, priced for that, with 10% withholding on interest and no Korea–Maldives treaty relief; or the franchising route at a USD 1,000,000 minimum, which is a different business. Nominee holdings and side agreements over voting or profit are not contemplated here.

What breaks it

Two variables dominate, and they are not the currency. Footfall can fall about a third before cash runs out; the basket can fall about a third. Either alone has real headroom. The two together do not — a 20% shortfall on both at once is not survivable on this raise. A heavier product mix is the third: a 200 g average unit cuts year-five EBITDA by roughly three quarters and exhausts the company's cash, and no realistic amount of capital fixes that. It has to be engineered out of the range.

Test all of this yourself

Everything on this page is one configuration of an engine that runs in your browser. The simulator exposes all 69 inputs — each with a one-line explanation and its evidence tier — alongside a picker of 48 real Malé and Hulhumalé rent listings and seven one-click scenarios. If you think a number here is wrong, change it and watch what happens to the statements.